Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Obamarama Rolls On

Last night, Obama won the Wisconsin primary and the Hawaii caucus. Neither contest was even close. He took Wisconsin by a margin of 17%, and Hawaii by 52%. At this point in the race, those numbers spell almost certain doom for the Clinton campaign. The real dagger last night was that Obama cut into Hillary's core voters. Jay Cost at RealClearPolitics.com sums it up nicely.
Clinton suffered significant loses across many of her core constituencies. White women, Democrats, union workers, downscale voters, and white Catholics all drifted to Obama last night - some so much that Obama actually won them.

What this shows is that the Clinton Campaign strategy of going negative in recent weeks didn't help her, and in fact may have backfired.

It's 13 days now until Hillary's D-Day. She has to pull out strong victories in both Texas and Ohio in order to even have a sliver of a chance of getting the nomination. Right now, according to CNN, Obama is ahead in the pledged delegate count by 143. While Clinton leads in the polls in Ohio, a Monday CNN poll shows Texas as a dead heat.

Can Hillary stage a comeback? Negative tactics don't seem to work against Obama's message of hope and change. The real question is whether the Clinton campaign has any new tricks up its sleeve, because the old ones aren't getting the job done.

5 comments:

Nikki said...

Hey Mike........yep what about the old Clinton machine going down like the Titanic. Kinda like it. But this Obama machine is a little too hypnotic for my liking. Any chance those Super Delagates can pull aout a W for Hill/Bill and we can go up against her in the fall?? And I just saw an article on Yahoo that John McCain just called on President Bush to veto the torture bill....but I guess I spoke too soon because I have no idea what the bill says. oops. I'll check it out. I was gonna sya that you should be happy the MAV is back but I shouldn't jump the gun I guess.......:)N

Nikki said...

Ok checked it out an it would bar the CIA from using torture.....any possible way terrorists are into S and M??? so yep your argument still stands the title made it look like he was against it but he is NOT....:)N

Mike H said...

Hey, Nikki. The most interesting thing about Obama's success so far is that Hillary is executing a fairly standard political campaign. She's using negative ads and mudslinging, but it's not working. Maybe Obama has what it takes to finally move us beyond the tired politics of yesterday. Maybe that's the hope that mesmerizes everyone. If it is, I'd say McCain is sunk, because he's as old-school as they come.

And yeah, sometimes it's tough to figure out exactly who is voting for what. It's almost a full-time job trying to keep up with it all. (Now, if only I could get paid for it.)

Nikki said...

Obama is the politics of yesterday.....if any ONE person has as much power as he claims to have it is a bad thing! Also he mis-spoke a few times already. The other day when he was in Ohio he said he would change the manufacturing industry by giving tax breaks to companies who hire in the US....that has already been done. The poor suckers have no idea that he is not the author of such legislation. It already exists. he is only a different political philosophy. One I think is damaging to America. I have hope. He is also setting up insurance for failure saying we can do this together, so any failure on his part will be the people at fault. I have hope and low expectations. But you and I both know he has some pretty hefty promises to keep.....and it is not going to be easy. but what will be fun is me attacking him and you defending his record...NOW that will be a change!!!! :)N

Rick Frea said...

I discovered your blog through Nikki, so you can blame her. It will be a very interesting race between Obama and McCain, if that's what it comes down to.