He gave McCain New Hampshire, which seems fair. Then he gave Obama Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico and Ohio. He took Montana, North Carolina, Georgia and Florida away from McCain since they are all too close to call. His map looks like this:
Which would result in a nice big win for Obama, no matter which way the four swing states fell.
I think that Beckel missed one important state, though. There is one state that has been a Republican stronghold recently, and in most scenarios is considered a gimme for the GOP. Let me put a picture of it here, so you all can start to get used to seeing it.
The latest poll I can find shows McCain leading Obama in Texas by only 5 percent, 48 to 43, with 9% undecided. I think that as McCain tries to play tough on illegal immigration and border fences in order to placate the GOP base, a lot of hispanics are going to shift over to the Democratic camp. Add to that the quarter-million blacks displaced from New Orleans who now call Texas home and the emergence of Bob Barr as a Libertarian alternative for Ron Paul's supporters, and I think that the Lone Star State will tip back to blue, as it was in almost every election through 1976. This is what my electoral map looks like:
Isn't that nice? I left Florida as undecided because it's too hard to say how that one's going to fall. I think it will be blue, but I'm not confident in that prediction. I also gave North Dakota to Obama because he's currently leading McCain in that state as well.
So, will McCain get wiped out this November or is it just wishful thinking? We'll find out in five months. Stay tuned.
NOTE: All of the maps here were created on my new favorite web site: 270toWin.com. Go check it out.
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11 comments:
Thanks for sending me to the rubber room to the headbangers ball...:)N
Nikki, lol. At least you'll have a lot to blog about. :)
Cool post. Thanks for the links. It's fun to play with this data.
Great post - great link! I can see why 270toWin is your fav. It looks like an excellent resource. Thanks! :-)
If Texas goes blue, does that mean I have to stop referring to them as morons? A Blue Texas would certainly make an interesting story the day after election day.
Great site, thanks for the lead.
Oh, and maybe I'm just a glass-half-full Republican, but I keep thinking a lot of wannabe Obama supporters are going to step up to the booth and with a shaking hand vote for McCain. They're just not going to feel comfortable voting for Obama's inexperience. Am I just living a dream?
hey Mike...I want to start encorporating some opposing views for the upcoming general...wanted to see if you were interested, in doing some. Do you have an email? email me if would, its in my profile. thanks :)N
Khaki, I don't think that Obama's alleged inexperience will be that big of an issue for Democrats (despite what I'm sure will be Herculean efforts by the Republicans to make it so.) How much experience did Bush have? You know, other than running companies into the ground and getting bailed out by the Saudis, I mean.
Mike, you are apparently unaware of the extraordinarily successful keggers that Bush held a Yale. I accept your apology.
Side note: when you say that Bush was inexperienced . . . does that mean that Obama's inexperience will give us a third Bush term? Don't we need to get a seasoned veteran back in the White House. A guy like, I don't know, McCain?
Khaki, first of all, LOL on the keggers.
I don't think that Bush's inexperience is what gave us such a deplorable presidency. His ideology and lack of respect for things like civil rights and the US Constitution have done that. I'm just saying that the cries from the right over Obama's alleged inexperience are hollow at best. Which is not surprising. As I've said before, the GOP has no firepower this time around when it comes to the issues. All they can do is smear Obama and hope for the best.
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