Obama won in North Carolina 56% to 42%, a decisive margin of victory. Clinton took Indiana, on the other hand, by 2%, 51 to 49. According to Joe Klein in the May 19 edition of Time:
Clinton's slim margin of victory in Indiana was provided, appropriately enough, by Republicans, who were 10% of the Democratic-primary electorate and whose votes she carried 54% to 46%...
If that's the case, Clinton's margin without the help of the Republicans would have been .34%, or about 4,000 votes. This after Obama took a beating in the press over his various "scandals," ranging from Reverend Wright to a flag pin absent from his lapel. And in a state that Clinton was expected to win, no less.
Indiana was not a victory for Clinton. Her last-ditch effort to sway the remaining super delegates has been to claim that she is more electable than Obama. She would have needed to win Indiana by a good 10 points or more in order for her claim to have any credibility. Winning the state by .34% or 2% just doesn't cut it.
So while Obama technically lost Indiana, I think he can claim it as a victory because not only did he split the Democrats in a state he was presumed to lose, but he even got 45% of the Republicans who crossed over and voted in the Democratic race. That means that Obama received enough Republican votes to finish ahead of Huckabee, Romney and Paul.
Obama has the lead in pledged delegates and in the popular vote, and has taken the lead in super delegates. At this point, the only questions that remain are, how much longer until Clinton bows out, and whom will Obama pick as his running mate.
5 comments:
Hey Mike, It still looks as though the Clinton machine rolls on. Though I heard today of some rumors that some of her staffers are pushing for VEEP for her. I doubt she would be interested in #2and I doubt Obama would be interested in a threesome. Colin Powell has been thrown around to strengthen the foreign policy weakness. I don't see a Richardson nod or an Edwards look. The dems may kick out another historical figure but at this point I am guessing a Wes Clark type. It does look like it may be winding down for Hill and on to the general we go...:)N woohoo!
Nikki, Clinton's only option at this point is take the VP spot, otherwise it's back to the Senate she goes.
There's been some talk about how Obama will need a military person to give him some foreign policy cred, but I'd prefer he didn't stoop to that. Maybe Obama should pick Carter for VP. Ha ha, kidding.
I think you're right on this one, Mike. Super Dels continue to flip for Obama because they know the writing is on the wall, despite West Virginia. I just hope she stays in long enough to dig up some more dirt on Obama . . . she's been a huge help :-)
Excellent assessment. I don't think Hillary will take the veep because she wants to be president in 2012 when Obama loses. She won't say so, but I think she wants McCain to win. IMO.
Now, on another note, I think Hillary will not be veep for another reason. She has no military experience. Obama, to create a credible administration, needs to have a military expert on board, otherwise he will lose big on foreign and military experience, of which he has none.
Therefore, I think someone like a Wesley Clark would bode well for him. If he could somehow pull in a Colon Powel, that would be even better, because then he'd pull in some more repubs too.
IMO of course
Khaki, yeah, as soon as Hillary drops out, the Republicans will have to start doing their own dirty work again. :)
Freadom, the conventional wisdom is that Obama will need to pick someone with military experience. I don't think so, though. Look at Bush/Cheney. How much military expertise did they have? He just needs to pick a moderate Democrat who polls well in the areas that he's lacking. Someone like Hillary, for example.
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